Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Research
Our monetary policy and macroeconomic research focuses on national and international economic issues.
Latest Research
Consumer Debt Is High, but Consumers Seem to Have Room to Run
Debt-to-income measures are historically low, suggesting consumers may be able to take on more debt without stressing finances.
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Worker mobility played a key role in shaping inflation dynamics during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recoveries.
Current Monetary Policy May Be Less Restrictive Than It Seems
Lowering inflation to 2 percent may require monetary policy to remain restrictive for some time.
Foreign-Born Women Have Driven the Recent Increase in Prime-Age Women in the Labor Force
The labor force of prime-age (25 to 54) women has rebounded since the pandemic, driven by foreign-born women.
Why Do Net Interest Margins Behave Differently across Banks as Interest Rates Rise?
Banks with declining net interest margins during the 2022–23 tightening cycle were more reliant on capital market funding.
Uninsurable Income Risk and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Global Imbalances
Encouraging savings in debtor economies can help balance their current accounts while raising wages globally.
Corporate Interest Expenses Are Expected to Increase Further
As fixed-rate corporate debt issued during the pandemic matures, firms may need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates.
Shocks, Frictions, and Policy Regimes: Understanding Inflation after the COVID-19 Pandemic
Fiscal and monetary policies likely contributed to the persistent rise in inflation during the post-pandemic period.
Decline in Number of Workers with “Some College” Is Boosting Healthcare Wage Inflation
About 1.5 million workers with some post-secondary schooling but less than a bachelor’s degree are missing from the labor force.